Tag Archives: petrodollar

US Strategy in Ukraine: WAR with Russia?

Lugansk Civilian Bombing

                  Lugansk Civilian Bombing

The Human face of Kiev Bombing

WHAT IS THE US / EU / UKRAINIAN ARMY STRATEGY?
 
At least in Gaza, Israel uses the excuse of hunting terrorists. What is the excuse for random terror bombing of civilians in Lugansk / Donetsk? Kiev is losing the ground war, losing military jets, losing draftees, needing increased mobilization, losing its coalition government, and rapidly going broke. Yet it increases the genocidal bombing of “pro-Russians.”  
Simultaneously, in a myriad of dubious coincidences, a commercial airline crash almost causes enough outrage for a major war. If MH17 was a false flag, WHY?
 
East Ukraine seceded because of a political coup where they were not represented. They didn’t ATTACK the central government. They VOTED to secede after the Constitution was abrogated by a faction in one city.. But the unelected Kiev coalition-junta immediately responded with a full-scale military attack to FORCE re-affiliation by attacking civilian areas, a strategy which logically would justify and harden the resistance. Subsequently, the US-imposed and -controlled junta refuses to consider ANY negotiations without first DISARMING the secessionists, before passing any legislation that would address their concerns.
 
How would THAT sound to pro-2nd Amendment Americans?

The attacks are against “pro-Russian Ukrainians”, not military targets, nor even the specific government buildings taken over by the locals. Apparently occupying government buildings is now a capital crime in Ukraine (except in Kiev’s Maidan). The Western propaganda is hysterically and universally and immediately Anti-PUTIN, not anti-Strelkov.

The agenda seems to be to PROVOKE a Soviet-style reaction by Russia, which can be SOLD by PROPAGANDA as “another Russian invasion of a US ally.” Despite this explanation, Crimea was re-affiliated with mother Russia by overwhelming popular support, with absolute minimum casualties, in contrast to Kiev’s attempts to re-affiliate Donbass. If Russia can be maneuvered to be perceived as brutally invading Ukraine “against international law”, NATO would be “required” to respond with direct attacks on Russia from East European forward NATO bases, which were installed with full preparatory logistics (“purely defensively” of course). Now these bases are being quietly (i.e.: ignored by MSM) readied with increased aircraft, and “symbolic” transfers of elite military units, from the Baltic to the Balkans.

Now, the Ukrainian army has been surreptitiously shelling RUSSIAN territory near Rostov, while Western media is claiming that Russia is building up forces on the border and shelling Ukraine FROM Russia.

The GOAL is apparently ALL OUT WAR with Russia and forcible retaking of Crimea.  Undoubtedly with the objective of disabling Russia’s Black Sea fleet, giving NATO total DIRECT control of the Black Sea access route to Caspian Oil & Gas reserves, with or without Russian Pipelines.
 
Coincidentally (again?) NATO naval maneuvers JUST concluded with US, Romania, Turkey, Bulgaria, with an emphasis on mining operations. Other than Sevastopol, what ports are worth mining in the Black Sea? With Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia and Turkey as NATO allies, there is very little BESIDES Crimea to prevent the Black Sea from becoming Lake NATO.  Crimea is critical for US/NATO control of Caspian gas fields. The current land war may be just a diversion to justify a naval war to accomplish it. Crimea cannot be attacked successfully by land due to easily blocked chokepoints.

US doesn’t want a cease fire, nor will it be satisfied with a Ukraine Confederation including Donbass. It is committed to military confrontation. US wants the GAS. It wants an excuse for inflating the petrodollar, and it needs cover to avoid the US economy from tanking, especially before the November US elections. It just needs to catch the public up with the decision already made.

If this is the strategy, it is becoming desperate, especially with the breakup of the junta government. The Right Wing Svoboda has bolted. UDAR has no influence. The Tymoshenko-proxy PM has quit. Now, the war will have to accelerate, and become more like Syria, with increasingly random Right Sektor atrocities, at the direction of the CIA. ESPECIALLY if MH17 is shown to be a failed US false flag.
 
All the “evidence” put forth blaming Russia in one form or another, has been fabricated, or “confidential”. The old “Trust us, we’re the good guys-type evidence.” Since that tragic event didn’t trigger the expected result, what next? There is an media-hyped attempt to insert NATO troops at the crash site (to protect it). Then, maybe massacring them by a “Russian Missile”? (Similar to first responders at the WTC.) The war acceptance threshold needs more dead bodies, but they really need to be innocent Americans or EUs. Slavic bodies, like Palestinians, don’t matter. They have less value as emotional propaganda, especially when those bodies are atrocities caused by the West, at which point they are ignored by the “Stenographic Media” (Abby Martin’s bulls-eye).

Something will have to occur to generate sufficient outrage to start a full scale NATO-Russian war. The West seems to be hard at work in the propaganda arena. The current tack continues to be trying to provoke Putin to make a drastic move. But, so far, Putin seems to have figured that out! He is presenting HIS evidence about MH17, while quietly arming Donbass with defensive weaponry against the  civilian terror bombing by Kiev in such a way as to maintain some thin deniability. He cannot allow the West to attack his flank and do nothing.
 
The US (the shadow government behind the puppet Obama) seems to have made the decision that Russia is as vulnerable as it will ever be. The recent BRICS currency agreement threatens the petrodollar, and if successful will accelerate the demise of US economic hegemony. US overt aggression has reached the desperation stage.
 
In my opinion, only Germany is the key to avoid a catastrophe. Merkel needs to take EU leadership away from the Anglo-American hegemony/suicide cabal (hegemony for US/ suicide for Europe). Intercontinental nuclear exchanges is a price not yet willing to be paid by the US. Therefore, the sole risk is to Europe in a ground war, previously believed anachronistic. In such a scenario, only the US benefits. (CUI BONO anyone?) If war starts, the private-bank Fed finances it, Europe and Russia suffer it, in manpower, and economic progress. Subsequent destruction would need to be rebuilt by US multinationals, with similar experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, financed by US and UK banks.
 
Today, Obama is golfing. Next week, Congress closes down for a month. It will be a bloody August…  just as it was exactly 100 years ago, beginning August 5, 1914, the Battle of Liege.
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DR. Kent Moors – What He’s Telling the Russians about Ukraine

As Ukraine Explodes, Here’s What I’m Telling the Russians

by Dr. Kent Moors | published December 5th, 2013 | Oil & Energy Investor

There is a huge elephant in the room here in Moscow. The issue is permeating everything but remains off the official agenda. Even the media is treating it with kid gloves.

It’s the uprising in Ukraine.

As the protests intensify in Kiev, the Kremlin has now entered into a huge tug of war with the European Union (EU) over access to and influence over Ukrainian energy policy.

At issue is the direction of Ukraine’s future partnerships…and who is likely to end up having influence over the crucial natural gas pipelines that span the country, moving more gas to Europe than any other venue.

For years now, Kiev has maintained a steadfast refusal to allow Gazprom, the Russian gas behemoth, to gain control over those domestic pipelines.

Gazprom, whose moves are clearly extensions of Russian foreign policy, has already taken over both the export pipeline network and the company responsible for the transit in neighboring Belarus.

This arrangement allows Moscow to control the access to Europe – even though the pipeline crosses a separate sovereign state. But Ukraine has since made it clear it would not allow the same result.

However, the situation is becoming more acute and the options are limited. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a workable solution.

In fact, here’s what I’m about to tell the Kremlin…

The Fall-Out from the “Gas War”

First, though, let me fill you in on the situation…

While the EU in Brussels has provided some financial assistance to Kiev in planning for upgrades on the pipelines, Ukrainian officials have been disappointed by the amount and by the slowness of the European response.

Meanwhile, the energy needs back at home are starting to force the Ukrainian hand.

The country remains dependent upon imported gas from Russia despite a range of pursued alternatives. These include: the gas exploration begun in offshore Black Sea locations, shale gas development underway in western Ukraine, and heavy talk about building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal outside Odessa.

Unfortunately, each of these will take time. That is something the country does not have.

The bulk of its gas requirements rely on Russia. Even negotiating additional pipelined consignments from the Caspian basin – especially from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan – requires pass-through permission for delivery across Russia.

Ukraine does receive payment in kind for transporting Russian gas to Europe and buys additional volume from Gazprom. However, the current contract has resulted in protracted political discord in Kiev.

After the so-called January “gas war” a few years ago, when the cross-border disagreement resulted in suspension of deliveries to Europe during a particularly cold snap, Brussels has taken a more avid interest in the situation.

It has resulted in attempts to develop alternative pipeline networks bypassing Russia and the development of an accelerating LNG trade directly to Western Europe.

The Rising Political Blood Pressure in Ukraine

The prospect of relying less on Russian gas has had two results.

The first was heightened angst in Kiev over the future prospects of its own energy situation (less Russian gas going to Europe meant less gas available for Ukraine). The second, on the other hand, sent Ukraine’s political blood pressure through the roof.

The suspension of deliveries to Europe had cost Moscow significant political capital in Brussels. Gazprom was held responsible for suspending the exports that put Europe in the deep freeze. Russia has claimed that Ukraine was stealing gas from the transmissions meant for European utility majors.

Either way, the Kremlin decided to prevent the matter from happening again.

Russia introduced the primary change that is causing the rapid destruction of Ukrainian energy plans. It entered into agreements with major Western European utilities to build huge pipelines bypassing both the political opposition in the EU and Ukraine.

Nord Stream is up and operating across the North Sea floor between Russia and Germany. South Stream, now the most expensive pipeline project ever conceived, will be passing under the Black Sea through the Turkish economic zone into Southeastern Europe and then up to the main users.

The emergence of these new networks will result in the gas moving across Ukraine becoming a backup system only, with volumes cut significantly. For that matter, should additional deliveries to Europe become necessary, they could move across the Yamal-Europe pipeline crossing Belarus, the one now owned and operated by Gazprom.

The result has been a decision by Kiev throwing the country into civil unrest.

The Ukrainian government has decided to move away from the EU (and even shelve its desire to become a member) in favor of developing a closer relationship with Moscow.

Some consider this inevitable, given the options genuinely available. But the decision is likely to tear the country apart.

Ukrainian nationalists centered in Lviv are livid, but the Russian-speaking and Russian-ethnic population in Eastern Ukraine, especially on the Crimean peninsula are ecstatic.

From a policy standpoint, however, Moscow must be careful. There are certainly other players with a stake in this other than the EU. Even there, despite moves to Asia, Europe remains the primary customer for Russian gas (to say nothing of the massive expense in the huge new pipelines projects to move Russian gas there).

What I Plan to Tell the Russians

All of which set the stage for my suggestion on Tuesday. Nobody from Gazprom was broaching the Ukrainian issue.

As you may recall from Tuesday’s issue, I had indicated: (1) they had requested a I revise my briefing to consider the new energy balance; and (2) that there was a particular suggestion I was about to make to the Kremlin.

The suggestion is this…

Given the Russian desire to move into the LNG trade as quickly as possible, combined with the rather low pricing demands being made by China to open the gas export market in that direction, a way to lower the political heat with Ukraine presents itself, one that may allow Gazprom to make a better transition into these new gas export arrangements.

In this case, Russia should jointly build a series of LNG import terminals in Ukraine, providing a new option for moving gas beyond Ukrainian domestic needs to Europe. This would then provide them with a significant bargaining option with Caspian nations for their gas production.

That transit would take place across Ukraine not Russia, a development the EU would accept.

It even opens up a completely new source of gas to meet rising European needs – the Iraqi government in Baghdad and the semi-autonomous northern Kurdistan Regional Government based in Irbil. There is considerable and increasing gas production in both, but much of it is flared for want of a ready customer.

This will involve a number of Western companies that are already in the region. And this suggestion will allow us to move on several exciting new investment opportunities.

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